Just a few weeks ago, trappers were wondering who would buy their wild fur skins if the European Union implemented its scheduled wild fur ban on Jan. 1. They went out and developed new markets, solicited new international customers. Now that the EU's embargo has been postponed for a year, however, there might be a shortage of wild furs to go around.

Trapping seasons, which vary according to state, are almost over in the northern part of the U.S., and industry experts say that the number of skins harvested there is down 25 to 50% overall at this time. In some parts of the country, trappers took even less.

In Ohio, Illinois, Indiana and Iowa, the catch is down 25-30%, says Keith Winkler of Sterling Fur, Sterling, OH. Michigan is down 30-40%, but in Wisconsin and Minnesota, those numbers climb to 40-60%.

In northern Minnesota, the catch is 50% less than it was last year at this time, while in southern Minnesota, it's down 25%, says Tim Caven of Minnesota Trapline Products, Pennock, MN. "In parts of the Northeast „ parts of Pennsylvania, New York, Maine and Vermont „ there is virtually no catch. A 16 to 18-inch snow shut them down before they got started."

Throughout most of the country, the small harvest is due primarily to the weather. The same cold spell praised by retailers for spurring sales kept trappers off their lines. Sometimes, in the case of water trapping, they were literally frozen out.

Contributing to the reasons trappers stayed inside was an expectation that they wouldn't get the prices they wanted for their goods, so what was the use in fighting the elements? Early reports in trapping magazines were discouraging, forecasting significantly lower skin prices this year. The EU situation didn't help, since trappers thought, up until just a few weeks ago, that they would lose a major buyer. About 70% of North American wild furs end up in the EU.

For now, a shortage in skins means already climbing prices on some goods for sale by country collectors, and possibly higher prices at this week's wild fur auctions by Fur Harvesters Auction Inc. and North American Fur Auctions, in North Bay and Rexdale, Ontario, respectively. About 30% of North American wild fur skins are sold at auction; the majority are sold private treaty, through brokers, dealers or country collectors, or directly from the trappers.

While price levels of 20-25% higher than last year sound good to trappers right now, they might not be healthy for their long-term outlook. Not only would most trappers like to see smaller gains over the next few years, making for a more stable market, they believe a steep jump right now might scare off new markets. Both the National Trappers Association (NTA) and the Wild Fur Council of North America have spent considerable resources and effort to develop alternative markets to the EU, and they've had some success in China, Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

"This is very positive issue, in that China is using fur (on the first of the year some of the tariffs come off) and other markets are developing," says Greg Groenewold of Groenewold Fur & Wool, one of the country's largest wild fur dealers, based in Forreston, IL. "But it would not be good if skins become too expensive for these markets."

"At any other time in history, this shortage would be good news," says Steve Greene of the NTA. "But right now we've created a demand for our product in young markets. The problem is, they can't afford to pay a lot more for it; their economies haven't developed enough to support much higher prices. If they can't purchase this year, they might be slow to come back and try again next year. We have to service these new markets when they come calling in order to keep their interest."

Some trappers are afraid that, if foreign buyers can't get the type of skins they want, they'll purchase ranched fur. Others say that they might just trade down to a less expensive type of fur.

Greene is encouraging trappers in areas where the season is still open to go out and catch more fur. "Prices might not be where we want them right now, but this will benefit the market in years to come."

As always when assessing the wild fur market, the strength of prices varies per species and according to customer. About 75 to 80% of North American raccoon skins, for example, end up in Russia either directly or as coats manufactured in Greece or other countries. It's difficult to predict how buyers from other countries will make their purchases. Chinese and CIS buyers have been erratic in their buying patterns.

"The market is treacherous right now," said Steve Dreisin of Dreisin Overseas Corp., a New York City wild fur dealer. "I expect strong prices in Toronto and North Bay because there are not that much goods available, and there is always pressure on the first sale. But the season is far from over. We might see better quantities coming in the next few weeks, and prices might decline later." For once, that's what trappers would like to happen.